A study conducted for the Grandview Heights City School District predicts total enrollment in the district to increase by about 10 percent over the next decade.
The study completed by FutureThink shows the number of students is expected to grow by 112 by 2026-27.
The actual enrollment this year is 1,090 students. The projection shows the district will have 1,202 students in 2026-27.
"The data shows the increase will be very incremental through the 10-year period and will be spread among grades K-12 in a relatively equal number," Superintendent Andy Culp said.
Over the next 10 years, enrollment increases are expected to total 33 students at Stevenson Elementary School, 20 at Edison Intermediate School, 40 at Larson Middle School and 17 at the high school.
"My analysis is that having the increase in enrollment spread throughout our buildings will likely allow us to keep our current staffing model," Culp said. "It shouldn't impact our current student-teacher ratio, which is about 16 or 17 to 1."
Additional classroom space would be unnecessary if the projections bear out, he said.
The enrollment projections take into account the anticipated residential development at Grandview Yard, Culp said.
"We specifically asked Tracy (Healy, FutureThink's owner and president) to look at the Yard," he said. "The development's impact on student enrollment is expected to be minimal."
That is because the target market for the housing at the Yard is not families with children, Culp said.
"It's something we will continue to monitor," he said.
The enrollment study was conducted as part of the district's facilities planning process.
"Anytime you're going through a facilities planning process, it's a good idea to get some data about enrollment to help determine whether there may be a change in the amount of building space you'll need," Culp said.
The study offered few surprises, board President Jesse Truett said.
"I think an addition of about 100 students over the next 10 years was about what we were figuring," he said. "It's always important to get an actual study of enrollment projections when you're looking at your facilities.
"In our case ... reviewing our facilities is needed because of deferred maintenance, not any concerns about increased enrollment," Truett said. "This study was us doing our due diligence."
It's clear that neither staffing or building space will be an issue if enrollment increases at the expected level, he said.
That said, Culp added the district will be mindful of unexpected factors that could change enrollment numbers.
Enrollment in Grandview has declined by 4 percent, or about 46 students, over the last decade, Culp said.
FutureThink used historical enrollment, birth data, general population demographics, housing development and survival ratios in developing its projections.
A summary of the enrollment study can be viewed at tinyurl.com/ghenroll.
The next community engagement meeting in the facilities planning process will be held at 6:30 p.m. Wednesday, Feb. 22, in the commons at Edison Intermediate/Larson Middle School, 1240 Oakland Ave.
The meeting will include a review of the results of three educational visioning meetings held last month and will begin the process of developing potential facility options.