The five-year forecast for the Groveport Madison school district predicts a healthy future for the school system -- if the existing levy is renewed in 2019.
Treasurer John Walsh's latest fiscal report indicates revenues for the district will be $82.6 million fiscal year 2018 -- the current school year; $83.9 million in 2019, $82.3 million in 2020, $80.3 million in 2021, and $80.9 million in 2022.
However, Walsh also predicts the economy will be "relatively flat" for 2018 and 2019 and will slow down. If that occurs, he said, local school districts will be affected because "economic viability is tied to the same fundamental economics that drive the state's economic viability."
Still, the report indicates the slowdown will not negatively affect revenues for school districts.
"Overall, we believe the economy of the state is stable during the forecast period," the report states.
The majority of Groveport Madison's revenue -- 53.5 percent -- comes from state funds, according to Walsh. Since there are two future state biennium budgets in which funds to school districts will be decided, the report indicates that some of the assumptions could change if the funding formula and the economy change.
As a result, Walsh said the forecast is very conservative in its estimates of future state funding.
"The district is very fortunate to have received more funding for FY18 and FY19 than had been expected from the state budget," the report states.
The district's second-highest source of funds -- 41 percent -- comes from tax revenue.
An existing 5.8-mill current-expense levy will expire Dec. 31, 2019. Walsh's report indicates this levy is necessary for the district's long-term financial health.
If the levy is not renewed in 2019, Walsh said the Groveport Madison budget will suffer a $2.9 million shortfall in 2020. By 2022, that would increase to $10 million if the levy doesn't pass.
Expenditures are expected to reach $79.1 million in fiscal year 2018, $81.5 million in 2019, $84.2 million in 2020, $87.1 million in 2021 and $90.1 million in 2022.
Wages and benefits make up 62 percent of the district's budget. Walsh predicts wage increases of 2 to 3 percent through 2019 and 2020.
"The district is also including base wage increases in FY21-FY22 of 2 percent each year," the report states.
Medical insurance costs are expected to rise by 12 percent in fiscal year 2018, 9 percent in 2019 and 8 percent from 2020 to 2022.
Purchased services account for 33 percent of the district's expenses. These include contracted services, utilities, gas, electricity, property insurance and transportation.