Michigan at Rutgers odds, picks and prediction

Geoff Clark
USA Today Sportsbookwire

The Michigan Wolverines (1-3) visit the Rutgers Scarlet Knights (1-3) for a Big Ten conference game at SHI Stadium in Piscataway, N.J. The kickoff is scheduled for 7:30 p.m. ET. Below, we analyze the Michigan-Rutgers college football betting odds and lines, with picks and predictions.

Michigan at Rutgers:Betting odds, spread andlines

Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports' betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 9:55 a.m. ET.

  • Money line : Michigan -400 (bet $400 to win $100) | Rutgers +300 (bet $100 to win $300)
  • Against the spread/ATS : Michigan -12 (-110) | Rutgers +12 (-110)
  • Over/Under : 52.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

Michigan at Rutgers: Three things to know

  1. Michigan lost its third consecutive game in a 49-11 stomping administered by Wisconsin last week. The Wolverines were down 28-0 at halftime, were outgained by 249 total yards and had 16 fewer first downs (26-10).
  2. Rutgers was upset 23-20 at home by Illinois and failed to cover as 5.5-point favorites. QB Noah Vedral threw three second-half interceptions, including a pick with 1:07 remaining that led to a game-winning field goal by the Illini.
  3. The Scarlet Knights took down the Wolverines in their first year in the Big Ten (2014), but Rutgers was a 3-point favorite. Michigan has been huge favorites since, winning the last five meetings-covering three-by an average of 43.8 points per game.

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Michigan at Rutgers: Odds, betting lines, predictions and picks

Prediction

Michigan 31, Rutgers 24

Money line (ML)

PASS on a Rutgers upset and no way I am laying that kind of price with this Michigan team. If the Wolverines lose their fourth straight, the football internet is going to unleash fury on head coach Jim Harbaugh.

Against the spread (ATS)

This ought to be a get-right spot for Michigan's ground game, which has fallen off a cliff over its last two games, but I don't see it. The Wolverines rushing attack had a combined 60 yards in its last two losses to Indiana and Wisconsin.

Rutgers gave up 141 rushing yards to Ohio State and 166 yards to Illinois but Ohio State is Ohio State and the Fighting Illini average the third-most rushing yards per game in the Big Ten (206.8).

The Scarlet Knights have double the stuff and sack rates as the Wolverines, according to Football Outsiders, so that'll force Michigan's first-year starter QB Joe Milton to be accurate. Milton's accuracy versus Rutgers' pass defense is TBD considering he's 82nd in completion percentage but the Scarlet Knights are 113th in opponent's completion percentage.

One last reason why I LIKE RUTGERS +12 (-110) for 1 unit is because the backdoor is wide open for a cover against this Swiss cheese Wolverines defense.

Over/Under (O/U)

Michigan's defense has been one of the most disappointing units in the nation this season. The Wolverines are 90th in opponent's points per game, 107th in opponent's 3rd down percentage and 113th in opponent's red-zone scoring percentage. Their defensive line is 93rd in opponent's line yards per carry, 115th in stuff rate and 116th in sack rate.

Rutgers' offensive numbers aren't all that impressive but the Knights did put up 27 on Ohio State, albeit mostly in garbage time but an Over is an Over. If the game goes how BetMGM projects it to go then Rutgers will have plenty of opportunities to get garbage time points.

This Michigan pass defense was torched by mediocre defenses (Michigan State and Indiana) and would've been torched by Wisconsin last week but the Badgers decided to run over the Wolverines for 341 rush yards.

The combined Over/Under record of the two teams is 6-2 O/U this year and the Over is 6-0 in the last six meetings. GIMME OVER 52.5 (-110) for 1.5 units.

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